中国农村劳动力转移对经济增长的贡献

The Contribution of Chinese Rural Surplus Labor Transfer and Economic Growth

通过构建一个两部门经济模型,并在增长核算框架下分析中国农村劳动力转移对经济增长的贡献。结果表明:1953—2013年中国农村劳动力转移对劳动生产率和总产出增长的贡献分别为20.43%和14.78%。分阶段看,不同时期农村劳动力转移对经济增长的贡献截然不同,计划经济体制下由行政命令引致的农村劳动力转移对劳动生产率和产出增长的贡献为负,而改革开放后由市场机制引导的农村劳动力转移对劳动生产率和产出增长的贡献显著为正,并且其贡献率呈快速上升趋势。因此,政府应该在教育、医疗、社会保障、职业培训和户籍制度改革等诸多方面做出努力,进一步促进农村劳动力转移。

This paper constructs two-sector economic model,and explores the impact of Chinese rural surplus labor transfer on economic growth from the angel of economic growth accounting frame. The results indicate that the impact of the rural surplus labor transfer on the whole society labor productivity and total output growth are 20. 43% and 14. 78%. The impact of the rural surplus labor transfer on the economic growth is different in different periods. Under the planned economic system,the impact of the rural surplus labor transfer that was caused by administration order on the whole society labor productivity and total output growth was negative. But with the reform and openness the impact of the rural surplus labor transfer that was caused by market mechanism on the whole society labor productivity and total output growth was positive,and the rate shows the tendency of rapid growth. Therefore,in order to promote rural surplus labor transfer,the government can make efforts from the aspects of education,medical system,social security,vocational training and household registration system reform.