财政支出对环境治理的门槛效应及检验——基于2003—2013年省际水环境治理面板数据

Threshold Effect of Fiscal Expense on Environment Quality and It's Test: Based on China's Provincial Water Environmental Management Panel Data from 2003 to 2013

选取2003—2013年中国30个省际面板数据,构建面板门槛模型研究了财政支出政策与水环境治理质量之间的关系及其门槛效应。结果发现:政府财政支出政策对水环境质量的影响存在显著的门槛效应;在化学需氧量、氨氮比重等水质量指标中,人均地区经济产出越过门槛值后政策治理效应反而不再能有效改善水环境质量,这体现出区域间水污染程度上的差异;在污水处理率等产出指标中,人均经济发展水平越过门槛值后政策治理效率显著提高,这表明经济发展水平依然是影响水环境治理政策效果的决定性因素。

Based on China＇s provincial panel data from 2003 to 2013,this paper studied the relationship between fiscal policies and their threshold effects with the panel threshold model. The result shows that：（1） There is significant threshold effect between government policies and water quality.（2） For water quality indicators of chemical oxygen demand,ammonia nitrogen in wastewater,when the proportion of per capita economic output are over the threshold value policy governance effect it can no longer effectively improve the water environment quality,which reflects the difference between the depth of water environment pollution in different areas.（3） As for the sewage treatment rate output indicators,the efficiency of per capita economic development policy governance increase greatly when across the threshold value,indicating that the level of economic development is still the basis of the decisive factors affecting the water environment governance.