基于D-S证据理论的中长期电力负荷组合预测

Mid-Long Term Load Power Load Combination Forecasting Based On D-S Evidence Theory

针对电力系统中长期负荷预测的特点,分别应用灰色系统理论及回归分析方法对中长期负荷进行了预测研究。然后基于D-S证据理论对两种负荷预测方法进行了组合预测,提出了一种新的电力负荷组合预测方法。并通过与两种预测方法的仿真验证对比,证明了本方法具备较高的精度及较强的可操作性,可为电网中长期规划提供有效的借鉴指导。

According to the characteristics of medium and long term load forecasting of power load, the gray system theory and the regression analysis method are used to forecast the medium and long term load respectively.Then ,based on the D-S evidence theory,the combination forecasting is conducted with the two load forecasting methods,and a new combined power load forecasting method is proposed.The simulation results show that the method has high accuracy and strong operability, which can provide an effective reference for long-term planning of power grid.