1972—2012年白洋淀湿地潜在蒸散量变化分析

The Change of Potential Evapotranspiration of Baiyangdian Marsh from 1972 to 2012

利用白洋淀湿地内的安新气象站1972—2012年的逐日气象数据,运用趋势分析、标准差、MannKendall突变检验、Morlet小波分析等方法,分析了白洋淀湿地的潜在蒸散量变化特征,结果表明:1972—2012年,白洋淀湿地的潜在蒸散量呈下降趋势,其中,年际、春季和秋季的潜在蒸散量随时间的变化减少明显,在对各季节潜在蒸散量的分析中,夏季的波动性最大,冬季的波动性最小;该湿地潜在蒸散量随时间的变化存在突变减少过程,其中,年潜在蒸散量在1988年下降显著,夏季在2001年下降显著,秋季在1991年下降显著;年潜在蒸散量存在8~10年的周期变化特征,春季潜在蒸散量存在5~7年左右的变化周期,夏季存在准8年左右的周期变化特征,秋季在20世纪90年代后存在准8年左右的周期特征,冬季存在准10年的变化周期。

Based on the meteorological data of Anxin Meteorological Observation Station in Baiyangdian marsh from 1972 to 2012, we used trend analysis, standard deviation, Mann-Kendall mutation test and Morlet wavelet analysis method to analyze the change characteristics of potential evapotranspiration in the area. The results showed that the potential evapotranspiration in this area presented a downward trend from 1972 to 2012, especially that of the inter-annual, spring and autumn. The analysis of each season＇ s evapotranspiration showed that the maximum volatility happened in summer, while the minimum volatility was in winter. The mutation of the potential evapotranspiration reduced with time, as annual potential evapotranspiration decreased in 1988, summer potential evapotranspiration decreased in 2001, autumn potential evapotranspiration decreased in 1991. The annual potential evapotranspiration variation had 8 to 10 years cycle, the spring potential evapotranspiration variation had 5 to 7 years cycle, the summer potential evapotranspiration variation had 8 years cycle, and the winter had 10 years cycle.