烟台市气候变化及其对旅游业影响分析

Climate Change and Its Impacts on Tourism in Yantai

为了定量分析烟台市气候改变对旅游行业的影响,采用气候倾向率方法,分析了烟台市近年来的气候改变特征;运用气候舒适度评价方式,分析了烟台市天气舒适的等级状况;运用相关性统计方法,进一步分析了气候舒适度和旅客线上关注度的关联程度。通过分析得到结果:烟台市年均降水、相对湿度和风速为逐年下降变化倾向,倾向率依次为:5.77 mm/(10 a)、0.56%/(10 a)、0.25 m/(s·10 a),年均气温以1.18℃/(10 a)倾向率上升;烟台市以5、6、9、10月为最佳旅游期;以4、7、8、11月为适宜旅游期;以1、2、12月为不适宜旅游期;烟台市气候的舒适度和旅客线上的关注度呈显著关系,关联系数为0.986,气候的弹性系数为0.128%。研究表明,烟台市近年来气候要素在逐年变化,气候舒适度对旅游业有显著影响作用,烟台市旅游气候舒适度参数每改变1个单位,旅客线上关注度月指数就会增长或降低0.128%。

To quantitatively study the influence of climate change on tourism industry, this paper analyzed climate change characteristics of Yantai in recent years by climatic propensity analysis. The climate comfort degree was evaluated by the climate comfort level, the correlation of climate comfort degree and tourist online attention was measured by the statistical methods. The results showed that the annual average precipitation, relative humidity and wind speed showed decreasing rends year by year, and the tendency rate was 5.77 mm/（10 a）, 0.56%/（10 a） and 0.25 m/（s. 10 a）, respectively, the annual average temperature increased by a rate of 1.18℃/ （10 a）. As for the tourist seasons, May, June, September and October are the best tourist months in one year, April, July, August and November are suitable travel periods, however, January, February and December are not suitable for tourism. In terms of relevance, the climate comfort degree is significantly related to the tourists online attentions, with the correlation coefficient of 0.986 and the climate resilience coefficient of 0.128%. The research shows that the meteorological elements of Yantai are changing in recent years, and the climate comfort degree has a significant impact on tourism. With the climate comfort degree of Yantai changing by 1 units, the monthly degree of tourist online attention would increase or decrease by 0.128%.