全球农产品贸易网络及其演化分析

Analysis on Global Agricultural Trade Network and Its Evolution

论文基于复杂网络视角,选择谷物、油料、纤维、糖料、果蔬、肉类6大类57种农产品,用1986—2013年间的贸易数据,构建全球农产品贸易网络,定量分析了这个复杂网络的特征和演化趋势。结果表明:1)1986—2013年,全球农产品贸易总量增加了2.26倍,其中油料作物增加幅度最大,增加了4.97倍。参与到全球农产品贸易网络中的国家(地区)逐年增多。2)拟合节点累积度分布的幂函数曲线,表明全球农产品贸易节点度分布具有不均匀性,节点度小的节点数量多,节点度大的节点数量少,满足幂律分布。"枢纽"节点不断成长。3)全球农产品贸易网络密度上升、平均路径长度下降、多元化趋势加强、网络结构复杂化等特征日益突出。4)我国农产品进口来源国(地区)集中程度较高,农产品进口潜在风险较大。一方面要进一步扩大开放,拓展进口来源国(地区)的数量,更好地利用国际资源;另一方面强化农业基础,提高农业综合生产能力,防范风险,保障粮食安全。

This paper analyzes global agriculture trade and its evolution with complex network methods. Using international trade data during 1986-2013, we selected 57 kinds of agricultural products belonging to six major categories of cereals, oil crops, sugars, fibers, fruits, vegetables and meats, and constructed trade network of international agricultural products at different periods. The evolution trend and current situation of global agriculture trade were quantitatively analyzed. The results show that total trade of international agricultural products increased 2.26 times during 1986-2013. Oil crops had the maximum growth which increased4.97 times. The number of global agricultural import and export countries involved in agricultural trade network was increasing. By fitting the cumulative distribution function curve of nodes＇ degree in the trade network, we can find that the distribution of nodes＇ degree satisfies power-law distribution that a majority of nodes have small degree while only a few nodes have large degree. The hub nodes continuously grew up. The density of global agricultural trade network rose while the average path length declined, and the trend of diversification strengthened. The agricultural products import of China depended on a few countries and thus there is potential risk of agricultural products import. On one hand, our country should enlarge opening to extend the source of import and make full use of international resources; on the other hand, it is necessary to strengthen the agricultural foundation and improve the comprehensive production capacity so that we can prevent risks and ensure national food security more efficiently.