我国稻谷供给与消费平衡的时空格局

The Spatial-temporal Pattern of Paddy Supply-Demand Balance in China

论文基于城市和农村人口大米消费量、稻谷加工产品产量、猪及家禽等产品出栏量、单位面积种子用量等估算了2000—2014年我国稻谷消费的变化,分析了不同省份稻谷的供需平衡关系。研究结果显示:我国稻谷人均表观消费量显著高于世界水平;2000—2014年稻谷供需从紧平衡甚至个别年度供不应求的状态逐渐过渡到供需盈余;我国稻谷以口粮消费为主,但消费比重减少明显,工业和饲料消费比重增加;2014年我国稻谷库存消费比接近70%,10 a库存增加了2.72倍;我国2/3的省份(21个)稻谷供需难以自足,仅10个省份稻谷能够自足,5个省份稻谷供需盈余量在300万t以上。为去库存,应坚定推进水稻的市场化改革;为保障区域稻谷等口粮的需求,应加强省际之间粮食流通体制机制的研究。

About 60% of people in China rely on rice as a staple food, illustrating the important role of paddy in safeguarding national grain security. So the accurate understanding of paddy consumption and supply-demand balance is very important. Previous estimates have focused on paddy rice consumption, but few have studied the regional and historical changes in the supply-demand balance. In this study, we studied the changes of amount and structure of paddy consumption in China during 2000-2014 based on statistic data in different paddy end-use sectors（food, industrial, feed, seed） and different provinces. We calculated the actual edible rice consumption based on urban and rural population and edible rice per capita, estimated the industrial paddy consumption based on the outputs and paddy usage coefficient of food industry products, no-food industry products, computed the feed paddy consumption based on the production of pigs and poultry products and the grain ratios of feed to meet, and calculated the seed paddy consumption based on the seeding area and the seed consumption per hectare.The results are： 1） Per capita apparent consumption of paddy in China was significantly higher than that in other countries and the world average. 2） During the period of 2000-2014, the supply-demand balance of paddy has gradually turned from tight relation and even shortage of supply in some years into a surplus of supply. 3） Most of paddy was consumed as edible grain,but the proportion has decreased significantly and the proportion of industrial and feed consumption has increased. 4） In 2014, China＇s paddy stock-consumption ratio was nearly70%, and the stock increased by 2.72 times in the past ten years. 5） Two thirds of the provinces in China were difficult to reach self-sufficiency in paddy supply in 2014. Ten provinces were self-sufficient, but only five provinces of them were more than 3.0 million tons surplus. Policy implications of these findings are consequently discussed, including firmly advancing marketoriented reform of paddy and strengthening research on the mechanism of inter-provincial grain supply chain.