基于期望余寿理论的老年定义新思考与中国人口态势重新测算

The New Thinking of Old Age and Re-measurement of Population Dynamics in China Based on Theory of Prospective Age

本文基于近年来国际学术界出现的期望余寿理论与方法对重新认识老年和老龄化进行全新思考。按照期望余寿理论方法,本研究对我国人口老龄化的发展现状和未来人口态势包括老年起点、老年人口比重、劳动年龄人口比重和老年抚养比等重要人口指标作重新测算,比较传统老年定义下和全新老年定义下我国人口发展态势的不同情境。按照期望余寿15年作为老年定义的全新标准,中国整个经济社会的老龄化语境将不会如传统老年定义下那么沉重。老年起点将随着人口预期寿命的持续提高而动态变化,将从2015-2020年的61.5岁提升至21世纪中叶的近70岁;老年人口的比重仍会呈现出上升趋势,但是提升幅度和速度将不会如传统老年定义下剧烈和迅速;劳动年龄人口比重的变动总体趋于缓和,将呈现先下降并到21世纪后半叶维持稳定水平的态势;老年抚养比的提升趋势也不如传统老年定义下之迅速,在2060年出现峰值后将有降低态势。基于期望余寿理论的老年定义新思考将有助于转变全社会对于老年与老龄化的观念。

This paper argues the new thinking of old age and aging based on the theory and method of prospective age,which has appeared in international academic circles in recent years. According to the theory and method of prospective age,the current situation of population aging and future population dynamics are recalculated,which includes several important demographic indicators such as the starting point of old age,proportion of elderly population,proportion of working-age population and old-age dependency rate（ODR）. Compared with the traditional definition of old age,the new old age redefines the different scenario of population development trends in China. According to the new standard of old age with 15 year＇s prospective age,the aging context of China＇s entire economic society will not be as heavy as the traditional def-inition of old age. The starting point of old age will change dynamically as the life expectancy continues torise,from 61.5 years old in 2015-2020 to nearly 70 years old in the middle of the 21 stcentury. The proportion of elderly population will still show an upward trend,but the increase and speed will not be as severeand rapid as the situation under the traditional definition of old age. The change in the proportion of working-age population tends to moderate,which will decline first and maintain a stable level in the second halfof the 21 stcentury. The uptrend of the old-age dependency rate is not as rapid as the situation under the traditional definition of old age,and there will be a decrease after the peak of 2060. In short,the new thinking on old age based on the prospective age will help to transform the conception of old age and aging of the whole society.