基于突变理论的道路交通事故致因机理研究

Mechanism on the Cause of Road Traffic Accident Base on Catastrophe Theory

为分析导致道路交通事故发生的机理,分析人、车、路与环境整个系统在运行时其安全状态的变化过程,引入突变理论,分析导致事故发生的因素,确定恰当的控制变量与状态变量,构建燕尾突变模型.通过分析燕尾突变模型,发现一些控制变量的连续性或阶段性变化使其越过了分歧点集,是道路交通系统发生突变的直接原因;结合突变模型对交通事故案例进行分析,得出在突变理论中防止系统控制点越过分歧点集曲面也是预控道路交通事故的有效方法;通过案例分析验证,此突变模型在道交通事故致因分析中具有可行性.

To analyze the mechanism leading to road traffic crashes,this paper examined the changes in the safety status of the entire system of people,vehicles,roads and the environment at the time of operation,introduced the catastrophe theory,explored the factors causing the accident,and determined the appropriate control variables and state variables. A swallowtail catastrophe model was proposed.Through analysis of the swallowtail catastrophe model,it was found that the continuity or phased changes of some control variables made it beyond the set of bifurcation points,which was the direct cause of the sudden changes in the road traffic system; the analysis of traffic accident cases based on the catastrophe model resulted in the catastrophe theory. Preventing the system control point from crossing the bifurcation point set surface is also an effective method of pre-controlling road traffic crashes; through a case study,this catastrophe model is feasible in the analysis of the causes of traffic crashes.