我国蔬菜产业风险水平实证量化分析

Empirical quantitative analysis on risk level of vegetable industry in China

【目的】对我国蔬菜产业及典型蔬菜种类的产量风险、价格风险和收益风险进行测算,为有关管理部门和蔬菜生产经营主体的种植与经营决策提供参考依据。【方法】选择移动变异系数作为风险衡量指标,利用历年我国蔬菜产业不同种类与种植模式下蔬菜的历史产量和价格数据,对蔬菜产业风险水平进行实证量化分析。【结果】我国蔬菜产业的收益风险和价格风险高于产量风险。不同种类蔬菜的风险水平存在明显差异;按照种植模式分类,设施蔬菜的风险水平明显低于露地蔬菜。【建议】应根据蔬菜产业风险水平衡量结果,合理布局蔬菜种植的种类与模式,确保蔬菜生产经营主体收益稳定增长与市场结构均衡,实现蔬菜市场有效供给。

【Objective】The yield risk,price risk and earning risk of whole vegetable industry and typical varieties of vegetable were estimated in order to provide reference for government administration and the main body of vegetable production and management to make decisions on cultivation and management.【Method】Mobile coefficient of variation was selected as risk measurement index. The historical production and price data of vegetables in different varieties and planting patterns of vegetable industry in China over the past years were used to conduct empirical quantitative analysis on the risk level of vegetable industry.【Result】The earning risk and price risk of vegetable industry were higher than yield risk.There were significant differences in the risk level among different varieties of vegetable. According to the categories of plating pattern,the risk level of facility vegetable was greatly lower than that of open-field vegetable.【Suggestion】Based on the risk level measurement results of vegetable industry,the varieties and patterns of vegetable planting should be rationally redistributed in order to make sure that the incomes of the main body of vegetable production and management steadily increase,and the market structure keeps balance,and realize the effective supply for vegetable market.