跨省移民与犯罪:来自中国的实证证据

Interprovincial Migration and Crime: Evidence from China

利用中国1989—2010年的省级面板数据验证跨省移民对犯罪率的影响,结果表明,跨省移民显著地增加了中国的犯罪率,样本期间内,跨省移民增加对中国犯罪率增加的贡献度达到30.5%。随后基于Becker(1968)和Ehrlich(1973)提出的犯罪经济学理论,采用2000年人口普查数据和2005年1%人口抽样调查数据实证,结果表明,犯罪的经济学理论可以部分地解释为什么跨省移民导致犯罪率增加。

The current paper uses Chinese provincial panel data of 1989-2010 to verify the impact of interprovincial migration on crime. The empirical result showed a significant positive effect of interprovincial migration on China's criminal rate. During the sample period, due to the increase of human mobility, China's criminal rate had increased by 30.5%. We also try to interpret the reasons why the migration causes crime rate based on the economic theory of crime proposed by Becker(1968) and Ehrlich(1973). By utilizing 2000 Census and2005 1-in-100 sample data, the research result indicates that economic theory of crime can partly interpret why interprovincial migration causes China's crime.