钟差预报模型的分析和比较

The Analysis and Comparision of Clock Error Prediction Models

针对常用的几种钟差预报模型进行了研究,对其计算模型进行了详细的推导,并给出了模型参数的计算过程,以BLOCK IIR-M卫星钟为例对几种钟差预报模型进行了比较分析,结果显示利用多项式模型、切比雪夫多项式模型进行预报时,随着采用的观测数据量的增大,无论短周期还是中、长周期预报,预报效果不一定会好,灰色系统模型只需要采用少量的观测数据来建模,减少了数据量,提高了建模速度,而且预报卫星钟差时精度有显著的提高,对于观测数据少,预报周期长的卫星具有明显优势。

In this paper,several common clock error prediction models are studied,the calculation models are derived in detail,and the calculation process of the models parameter is also given.The comparative analysis of several cases of clock error prediction model based on BLOCK IIR-M satellite clock is made.The results show that the prediction using the polynomial model,Chebyshev polynomial,with the increase of observation the amount of data used,whether short or medium and long term forecast,the forecast effect will not change.By using the grey system model we need the less observation dataand can improve the speed of modeling.The accuracy is significantly improved.It has obvious advantages on the prediction of satellite clock error,the observation data,forecast period the satellite.