基于偏离-份额法的国有林区产业结构分析

Analysis of Industrial Structure in SFR Based on the Shift Share Method

运用偏离-份额分析法,以全国林业为参照,对国有林区经济发展过程及产业结构进行实证分析得到:随着国有林区的改革和天保工程的实施以来,国有林区三次产业结构在不断进行调整,总体趋于合理方向转变;国有林区三次产业在增长率、结构上均高于全国平均水平,但是竞争力较弱,需要采取一定的措施提高竞争力水平;第一、第三产业受到的由木材大量调减所带来的影响较小,通过发展替代产业一定程度上缓解了经济增长压力,而主要以木材加工为主的第二产业受到了较大影响,需要通过产业的转型升级带动经济的增长。针对研究结论,提出国有林区产业结构优化应加大扶持以森林生态旅游服务业为主的第三产业,维持第一产业的稳定增长,推动第二产业的产业转型升级,不断提升三大产业竞争力,支持林区多种经营共同发展。

(1)Background——Since the implementation of the natural forest protection project,taking the stateowned forestry areas as comprehensive stop-cutting pilots,a series of policy implementation led to sharp drop in timber production. Primary industry,which is dominated by timber and wood industry as raw material,is seriously affected by the forestry industry. The state-owned forest areas must cultivate a new non-wood substitute industry as soon as possible. By adjusting the industrial structure,the industrial structure of the forest areas under the new situation should be established to ensure the economic and social stability and sustainable development of the forest areas.(2)Methods——In this paper,the economic development and industrial structure of state-owned forests are analyzed by taking the shift-share method. According to the calculation period required by SSM,it is divided into two periods of 2005-2009 and 2010-2014. Relevant statistical indicators required in the study mainly include the output value of tertiary industries and the total output value of state forestry in each year in the stateowned forest areas.(3)Results——The tertiary industries as a whole have enjoyed sound development,its output value has increased at an average annual rate of 18%. The output value of the primary industry accounts for the large share of GDP but its growth is slow,while that of the tertiary industry is the smallest and growing rapidly. The proportion of the output value of the secondary industry first decreased and then increased,but the proportion did not exceed that of the primary industry yet. According to the result of SSM model,in three industries between 2005 and 2014,Pj> 0,Dj< 0. Meanwhile,Nj> 0. Among them,the average value of Njin the secondary industry is the largest,seven times than the tertiary industry. However,the value of Njof the tertiary industry increased rapidly,and it is tripled between 2010 to 2014 compared with the first period( 2005-2009). Finally,the value of L,W,U all over one in the three industries at the state-owned forest areas.(4)Conclusions and Discussions——With the deep implementation of natural forest protection project,the three industry structure of state-owned forest areas has changed obviously. The impact of the secondary industry is the most obvious and the relative structure of the tertiary industry is more reasonable. In the tertiary industry,the rapid development momentum and the rapid increase in the proportion of output value,catch up with the trend of the secondary industry. Primary industry is still in the leading position,the output value of the growth rate and structure of the development of more stable. In the aspect of competitiveness,although the transformation of the three industry structures in the state-owned forest areas is becoming more and more reasonable,the output value of the three industries has been increasing overall,but the competitiveness is weak,especially the secondary industry and the internal structure of the industry needs to be adjusted as soon as possible. According to the analysis of industrial advantages,the tertiary industry should be developed as the leading industry in the future of state-owned forest areas. The internal economic structure of the secondary industry needs to be adjusted.