森林保险区划研究——以辽宁省为例

Risk Zoning of Forest Fires and Pests: Case of Liaoning Province

借助聚类分析法和灾害概率分布拟合法分别对辽宁省火灾和病虫害灾害进行定量风险水平分析,并据此进行风险区化。结果表明:辽宁省火灾区划分为4个等级:一级为营口、辽阳和盘锦,二级为沈阳、抚顺、本溪、丹东和铁岭,三级为大连、鞍山和阜新,四级为锦州、朝阳和葫芦岛;病虫害区划分为4个等级:一级为大连、抚顺和葫芦岛,二级为沈阳、锦州、辽阳、盘锦、阜新和铁岭,三级为丹东、朝阳和营口,四级为鞍山,且鞍山病虫害发生概率远高于其他地区。由于辽宁省火灾和病虫害发生的空间分布不相同,所以在厘定森林保险费率时应该对灾害加以区分,应加大对火灾高发区的防火投资、建立森林火灾监测系统、采取科学的防火措施、对病虫害高发区采取生物防治措施以降低病虫害危害森林资源。

(1)Background——Liaoning Province was included in the second batch of pilot provinces of national forest insurance in May 2010. By the middle of 2015,forest insurance coverage in Liaoning Province has reached 3. 70 million hector,so the participation rate has reached 59% and the insurance amount has reached 25. 8 billion yuan. Liaoning Province carries out comprehensive insurance and the same and standard sum of insurance coverage and rates. The insurance amount per mu is 500 yuan,and the insurance premium rate is 3%. The unified rate failed to reflect the risk difference in each region. Therefore,by using the forest fires and pest and disease data in Liaoning Province for the past years,the study adopted cluster analysis and probability fitting methods to make the risk zoning for forest fires and forest pests and diseases in Liaoning Province.(2) Methods——This paper uses forest fire data of Liaoning Province from 2010 to 2014 to carry out fire risk zoning in Liaoning Province by cluster analysis method,and selects Euclidean distance and uses direct clustering clustering method,shortest distance clustering method and farthest distance method; this paper uses the data of forest diseases and pests at the county level in Liaoning Province from 2008 to 2012 and the probability of accident rate fitting method to make the risk zoning for forest pests and diseases in Liaoning Province.(3)Results——Cluster analysis was used to classify the risk of fire in Liaoning province. It was found that the risk level of forest fires was characterized by regional distribution. For example,the incidence of fire in Yingkou,Liaoyang,and Panjin,three linked cities in northwestern Liaoning Province,was relatively low,so these places were divided into low-incidence fire areas,while the three connected cities of Jinzhou,Chaoyang,and Huludao are high-incidence fire areas. The laws and spatial distribution of fire and pests and diseases in Liaoning Province vary greatly. For example,Huludao City is a high-incidence fire area and a low-incidence area for pests and diseases. The final result shows that the fire area in Liaoning Province is divided into 4 levels:Grade 1 for Yingkou,Liaoyang and Panjin,Grade 2 for Shenyang,Fushun,Benxi,Dandong and Tieling,Grade 3 for Dalian,Anshan and Fuxin,and Grade 4 for Jinzhou,Chaoyang and Huludao; pest and disease areas are divided into 4 levels: Level 1 is Dalian, Fushun, and Huludao; Level 2 is Shenyang, Fuxin,Jinzhou,Liaoyang,and Tieling; Level 3 is Dandong,Chaoyang,and Yingkou,and Level 4 is Anshan,and the incidence of pests and diseases in Anshan is much higher than that in other regions.(4)Conclusions and Discussions——There are differences in the disaster zones of forest fires and forest diseases and pests. The high-incidence fire area is not a high-incidence pest area. When setting the comprehensive insurance fee rate,comprehensive consideration should be given to different risk factors. A single forest fire insurance should be develop. Investment in fire prevention in high-incidence areas of forest fires,and in prevention and control in high-incidence areas ofpests and diseases should be increased.