M2与社会融资规模偏离的原因及趋势研究

Research on the Reasons and Trends of M2 Deviating From the Scale of Social Financing

货币政策由数量型向价格型调控转型过程中,价格似乎变得更为重要。尽管如此,货币数量与资金价格仍是观察"硬币"的两面,数量的趋势或能预判价格的变化。金融严监管的背景下,货币数量尤其是广义M2在过去一年出现剧烈的收缩,而另一个货币数量指标社会融资规模却仍然强劲,二者的分化使得我们感知货币松紧以及经济冷暖出现分歧。本文基于M2和社会融资组成结构的异同点,分别对M2和社会融资近年来在金融自由化和金融监管收紧过程中的变化机理进行梳理,并对未来趋势予以预判。首先,文章区分了M2和社会融资的组成结构异同点,从共同的影响因素信贷入手进行分析和预判;其次,依据货币派生的机理,从商业银行资产负债表来分析引起M2变动的主要矛盾进行深入解读;再次,对于引发社会融资变动的信托和委托变化趋势予以分析。最后我们得出结论,由于监管重点的时间差异使得此轮M2先于社会融资回落,未来二者分化将逐步收敛。

In the process of adjusting monetary policy from quantitative to price control, price seems to become more important. Nevertheless, the quantity and the cash price are still the both sides of the ＂coin＂, the trend of the number can foresee the price change to some extent. Under the background of strict financial regulation, the amount of money, especially M2, has contracted sharply in the past year, but the scale of social financing remains strong. The divergence between these two indicators has led to a divergence when judging the monetary environment and economic situation. Based on the similarities and differences between M2 and social financing scale, this paper combs the evolution mechanism of M2 and social financing scale in the process of financial liberalization and financial repression in recent years, then predict the future trend of these two indicators. Firstly, the article differentiates the structure of M2 and social financing, analyzes and predicts from the credit aspect. Secondly, based on the mechanism of monetary derivation, we analyze in depth the main contradiction that causes the change of M2 from the balance sheet of commercial banks, and then analyze the trend of trust and entrustment. Finally, we conclude that because of the time difference of the regulatory, M2 has been reduced before the scale of social financing, and the two will gradually converge in the future.