摘要
As an effective pollution control method, emission allowance and allocation just implemented in volatile organic compounds（VOCs） control strategy of China in 2016. This article presents a possible way to set the emission allowance targets and establishes an allowance allocation model for the object year, 2020 and 2030, using 2010 as the reference year. On the basis of regression and scenario analysis method, the emission allowance targets were designed,which were 17.902 Tg and 18.224 Tg for 2020 and 2030, with an increasing rate of 28.75% and31.06% compared to 2010. From the perspective of industries, processes using VOCscontaining products, like machinery and equipment manufacturing, would continue to be the most significant industrial VOCs emission sources in the future of China. Four allocation indicators were selected, which are per capita GDP of each province, per capita industrial VOCs emission of each province, the economic contribution of industrial sector to regional economy of each province, and the emission intensity per land area of each province, respectively.Based on information entropy, the weights of the indicators were calculated and an emission allocation model was established, and the results showed that provinces like Shandong,Jiangsu, Guangdong, Zhejiang and Fujian were calculated to obtain more emission allowance while burden more reduction responsibility. Meanwhile, provinces like Guizhou, Ningxia,Hainan, Qinghai and Xizang were on the contrary. This paper suggests governments to enhance or ease to industrial VOCs reduction burden of each province in order to stimulate its economy or change its way of economy development.
As an effective pollution control method, emission allowance and allocation just implemented in volatile organic compounds（VOCs） control strategy of China in 2016. This article presents a possible way to set the emission allowance targets and establishes an allowance allocation model for the object year, 2020 and 2030, using 2010 as the reference year. On the basis of regression and scenario analysis method, the emission allowance targets were designed,which were 17.902 Tg and 18.224 Tg for 2020 and 2030, with an increasing rate of 28.75% and31.06% compared to 2010. From the perspective of industries, processes using VOCscontaining products, like machinery and equipment manufacturing, would continue to be the most significant industrial VOCs emission sources in the future of China. Four allocation indicators were selected, which are per capita GDP of each province, per capita industrial VOCs emission of each province, the economic contribution of industrial sector to regional economy of each province, and the emission intensity per land area of each province, respectively.Based on information entropy, the weights of the indicators were calculated and an emission allocation model was established, and the results showed that provinces like Shandong,Jiangsu, Guangdong, Zhejiang and Fujian were calculated to obtain more emission allowance while burden more reduction responsibility. Meanwhile, provinces like Guizhou, Ningxia,Hainan, Qinghai and Xizang were on the contrary. This paper suggests governments to enhance or ease to industrial VOCs reduction burden of each province in order to stimulate its economy or change its way of economy development.
基金
supported by a Special Fund of the Public Interest(No.201309073)
the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(No.2014ZM0068)
