限购政策对不同城市房价影响程度分析——基于超一线、一线城市比较分析

Analysis of the Impact of Restriction Policy on Housing Prices in Different Cities——Comparison between Super First Tier Cities and First Tier Cities

文章基于2010年6月至2016年11月我国超一线城市(上海、广州、深圳)和一线城市(南京、武汉、杭州)的加权平均房价,通过采用多元回归实证分析法,研究住房限购政策对两大类型城市房价的影响效应。实证结果表明,就短期而言,住房限购政策不但无法抑制房价增长,而且还会起到促进作用,其中限购政策对超一线城市的房价上涨的促进作用较一线城市更为明显。针对现实状况和比较分析结果,提出在出台限购政策的同时应配套采取相应的政策,使得政策效用最大化。

Based on the weighted average housing price in super first tier cities（Shanghai,Guangzhou and Shenzhen） and in first tier cities（Nanjing, Wuhan and Hangzhou） from June 2010 to November 2016, the paper studies the impact of restriction policy on housing prices in different cities by using multiple regression analysis. The empirical results show that,in the short term,the housing restriction policy cannot curb the growth of housing prices,but instead plays a catalytic role. The policy of limiting purchase which promotes the rise of housing prices in the super line cities is more obvious than that in the first tier cities. In view of the actual situation and the results of comparative analysis, it is proposed that the corresponding policies should be adopted at the same time,so as to maximize the effectiveness of the policy.