基于“一带一路”视角的中国与东盟农产品贸易特征变化研究

Agricultural Product Trade Characteristics Between China and ASEAN—Based on the Belt and Road Initiative

利用UN Comtrade数据库数据,按照中国农业部农产品贸易统计分类标准,从双边贸易规模与结构、比较优势、互补性、增长潜力以及产业内贸易等多重角度,对2005—2015年间,特别是"一带一路"倡议提出前后,中国与东盟农产品贸易变化特征进行了实证分析。研究表明:"一带一路"倡议提出后,中国-东盟农产品贸易规模进一步扩大,中国对东盟农产品贸易逆差额有明显收窄;中国出口农产品结构集聚化程度反超东盟,对东盟出口市场结构转向多元化;中国农产品对东盟出口比较优势的下降态势得以改善,而东盟农产品对中国出口比较优势持续增强;双方农产品贸易互补性小幅回升,但贸易强度略有下降;双边农产品贸易始终以产业内贸易为主,但垂直型与水平型产业内贸易作用方向趋于一致。

By using relevant trade indexes,this paper analyzes the characteristics of agriculture product trade between China and ASEAN from the aspect of trade scale and structure,comparative advantage,complementarities,growth potentiality,and intra-industry trade between 2005 and 2015,especially after＂the Belt and Road＂initiative being put forward. Research shows that the scale of trade between China and ASEAN in agricultural products further expands after ＂the Belt and Road ＂ initiative being put forward,while the trade deficit has narrowed significantly. The degree of agglomeration of China＇s export agricultural products has increased and exceeded ASEAN,while the export market structure to ASEAN has shifted to diversification. The declining trend of China＇s agricultural exports to ASEAN has been improved,while the export advantage of ASEAN agricultural products to China has continued to increase.The complementarity of agricultural trade between the China and ASEAN has picked up slightly,but the trade intensity has declined slightly. Bilateral trade in agricultural products has always been dominated by intra-industry trade,but the direction of vertical and horizontal intra-industry trade tends to be consistent.