基于MIKE11模型的南淝河及其支流内分泌干扰风险评价与调控

Risk of endocrine disruption in the Nanfei River and its tributaries assessed and controlled using MIKE11

为寻求评价和调控城市河流内分泌干扰风险的有效方法,以城市河流典型代表―南淝河及其支流水系为例,运用MIKE11水动力学和对流扩散模块构建南淝河流域城市河流雌激素迁移转化模型.同时,利用该模型对南淝河水系雌激素类物质引起的内分泌干扰风险进行评价,并基于未来可达水污染控制目标提出风险控制措施.结果表明,在最优雌激素排放率情景下,约50%以上的河段具有潜在内分泌干扰风险;仅在最高排放率情景下,丰、平、枯水期分别有19%、53%和67%河段存在高风险,高风险河段集中在南淝河城区段及其支流二十埠河、板桥河和店埠河.3种削减内分泌干扰风险远近期可达情境方案分析表明:仅依靠单一的点源截污控制方案,即使在最优排放率情景下仍有近50%的河段具有潜在风险水平;通过点源截污和70%的面源排污控制相结合的调控措施,在最优排放率情景下能使所有河段处于无风险水平;在将点源和面源排污完全截留控制的远期目标下,可以基本实现预期情景下90%以上河段处于无内分泌干扰风险水平.

In order to find an effective approach to evaluate and control endocrine disrupting risks in urban river,MIKE11 model was used to assess estrogen-based endocrine disruption risk. The hydrodynamic module and convection diffusion module of MIKE11 were applied to simulate the transport and transformation of estrogens in a typical urban river Nanfei River. Meanwhile,estrogen-based endocrine disruption effects in Nanfei Rivers and its tributaries were also assessed using this model. Then,the measurements of risk control were proposed based on the future goal of the water pollution control.Assuming the best case of estrogen discharge,above 50% of river reaches were predicted to be at risk of endocrine disruption. Under the worst case with the highest estrogen discharges,19%,53% and 67% of river reaches reached the higher risk level in wet,normal and dry seasons,respectively. The reaches with higher risk were located at the main stream of Nanfei River and its tributaries（ Ershibu River,Banqiao River and Dianbu River）. Three scenario analysis for reducing the endocrine disruption were conducted based on the reachable schemes of water pollution control at short and long terms.The results showed near 50% of reaches had potential risk in the case of single intercepting point-source sewage even with the low level estrogen discharge（best case）. Combining point-source sewage interception with 70% of nonpoint-source pollution control can make almost all of river reaches with no risk,associated with the best-case scenario（ low level estrogen discharge）. With long-term goal of sewage interception from all point and nonpoint sources,above 90% of river reaches were predicted to have E2-Eq below 1 ng·L-1（expected case）.