河北省城市水资源利用绩效评估与需水量估算研究

Evaluation of urban water resources utilization efficiency and water demand estimation in Hebei Province

从公共服务部门标杆管理思想出发,构建了2007—2014年中国地级以上城市水资源利用效率标杆体系,并以此为评估依据,对河北省地级以上城市2007—2014年水资源利用效率展开评估,识别各个城市万元GDP水耗、万元工业总产值水耗、人均综合水耗和人均生活水耗在全国所有地级以上城市和不同类型范围城市中的具体位置和变化趋势;并在此基础上对城市水资源利用效率标杆体系进行历史趋势外推,将标杆预测结果作为河北省各城市节水效率管理目标,结合河北省人口数量增长和社会经济发展规划目标,估算了"十三五"期末2020年河北省地级以上城市需水量,以期为指导河北省地级以上城市"以水定城"发展战略的制定提供参考依据.结果显示:河北省唐山市、沧州市、廊坊市万元GDP水耗一直处于全国先进水平;仅沧州市万元工业总产值水耗一直处于全国先进水平;保定市、沧州市和衡水市的人均综合水耗一直处于全国先进水平;保定市、沧州市、张家口市、石家庄市、秦皇岛市、邢台市的人均生活水耗一直处于全国先进水平;预计到"十三五"期末,河北省地级以上城市市辖区工业需水总量减少为8.81亿m^3,居民生活需水量增加为4.26亿m^3,城市总用水量增加为16.94亿m^3.

Based on the idea of benchmarking in public service sector,a benchmark system of water resources utilization efficiency was constructed for prefecture-level cities in China from 2007 to 2014. On this basis,this paper conducted an evaluation of city water resource utilization efficiency of Hebei Province from 2007 to 2014 in order to investigate specific location and change trend for water consumption per unit GDP（ 10000 CNY）,water consumption of industrial output per unit GDP（ 10000 CNY）,per capita water consumption and per capita residential living water consumption of cities in Hebei Province in all prefecture level cities in China of different type. At the same time,water resources utilization efficiency benchmarking system is extrapolated according to its historical trend. The benchmark prediction results are used as the water-saving efficiency management objectives of each city in Hebei Province,combining with population growth and social economic development planning goal in Hebei Province. We have estimated water demand in the ＂ 13 th Five-Year ＂ final year（ 2020） at city level in Hebei Province in order to provide reference for making a guidance of water resources management strategy in Hebei Province.The results show that： water consumption per unit GDP（ 10000 CNY） of Tangshan City,Cangzhou and Langfang of Hebei Province has been in the advanced level of the whole country,water consumption of industrial output per unit GDP（ 10000 CNY） of Cangzhou has always been in the advanced level of the whole country,per capita water consumption of Baoding,Cangzhou and Hengshui has been in the advanced level of the whole country,and per capita residential living water consumption of Baoding,Cangzhou,Zhangjiakou,Shijiazhuang,Qinhuangdao and Xingtai has been at the advanced level of the whole country. It is expected that by the end of the ＂ 13 th Five-Year＂ period,the total amount of industrial water demand in the cities of Hebei Province will reduce to 881 million m3,the living water demand of residents will increase to 426 million m3,and the total water consumption of cities in Hebei Province will increase to 1694 million m3.