人民币国际化对中国宏观经济的影响分析——基于人民币国际化动态指数计算的实证研究

The Impact of RMB Internationalization on China's Macroeconomy:An Empirical Research Based on the Calculation of RMB Internationalization Dynamic Index

准确分析当前人民币国际化对中国宏观经济的影响是避免重蹈日元国际化失败覆辙的前提。在充分考虑国际货币职能和人民币国际化现状的情况下,本文利用主成分分析法构建人民币国际化动态指数以期准确反映人民币国际化程度动态变动,然后基于FAVAR模型实证分析人民币国际化对中国宏观经济的影响。结果表明,人民币国际化程度提升对中国经济增长、投资、消费、价格、利率、汇率、进出口、货币市场、外汇储备、国际收支和金融系统性风险等宏观经济指标存在广泛地影响。中国应在积极推进人民币国际化的同时考虑人民币国际化对宏观经济的不利冲击。

An accurate analysis of the impact of RMB internationalization on China＇s macro economy is the precondition to avoid repeating the failure of the internationalization of the yen. Taking full account of the international monetary functions and the current status of RMB,this paper constructs a RMB internationalization dynamic index by using principal component analysis in order to accurately reflect the dynamic changes of the RMB internationalization,then based on FAVAR model,this paper empirically analyzed impact of RMB internationalization on China＇s macroeconomy. The result shows that the enhancement of RMB internationalization have wide range effects on many macroeconomic indicators such as economic growth,investment,consumption,price,interest rate,exchange rate,import and export,currency market,foreign exchange reserve,balance of payments and the risk of financial system. China should actively promote RMB internationalization while considering the negative impacts of RMB internationalization.