中国住房“财富效应”之谜——基于中国住房制度改革的检验

The Mystery of Chinese Housing“Wealth Effect”:An Empirical Test Based on Housing System Reform in China

住房"财富效应"(即房价变化如何影响家庭消费)在国内外具有广泛争议,在中国表现的更为明显——部分文献认为显著为正,另外部分文献认为显著为负。本文尝试通过两种方式改进现有研究,为厘清相关争议做出贡献:其一,引入关于家庭收入预期、地区金融自由度及地区生产率冲击等控制变量克服遗漏变量导致的内生性问题;其二,基于中国1998年住房制度改革这一准自然实验背景下的一个重要特征——绝大多数租赁公房的家庭在该改革中都购买了原先租赁的公房,来缓解"租房-买房"自选择问题。结果表明,中国显著存在正向住房"财富效应",即房价上涨促进居民消费。本文的发现有助于加深对房价如何影响家庭消费支出的理解,对房价调控及扩大内需等政策讨论有一定的现实意义。

Housing＂wealth effect＂,i.e. how housing price impacts household consumption,has caused extensive dissension both at home and abroad,which is specially obvious in China. Some studies found it was positive significantly,others found it was negative significantly. This paper tries to improve existing studies by the two following ways： Firstly,we solve the problem of omitted variables by controlling household expected income,urban monetary freedom and productivity shocks; Secondly,we relieve the self-selection problem by housing reform in 1998 in China. We have found that housing＂wealth effect＂exists in China significantly,i.e. housing price rising improves household consumption. This discovery helps us to understand that how housing wealth impact household consumption expenditure,which is enlightening to the policy discussion about regulating real estate market and stimulating domestic demand.