湖北省暴雨经济暴露时空变化及贡献率研究

Spatial-temporal patterns of economic exposure to rainstorm and influencing factors contribution in Hubei province

采用1971—2015年湖北省78个气象站点的日降水数据,分别计算1971—1980、1981—1990、1991—2000、2001—2010、2011—2015年的平均暴雨雨强,结合1980、1990、2000、2010、2015年湖北省县级国内生产总值(GDP)数据和"暴雨雨强-经济损失率"模型,研究湖北省暴雨经济暴露的时空变化,并量化暴雨影响、经济影响、暴雨经济联合影响对暴雨经济暴露变化的贡献率。结果表明:(1)时间上,湖北省暴雨经济暴露在1980年后迅速增长,2015年达到330亿元,增长超过23倍,总体强度呈加重趋势。(2)空间上,暴雨经济暴露格局与暴雨分布、经济发展密切相关,整体东部高于西部,形成以武汉城市圈为首的沿长江暴雨经济高暴露带。(3)影响因子贡献率上,经济发展对暴雨经济暴露变化起主导作用且影响力逐渐增强,暴雨影响、暴雨经济联合影响对暴雨经济暴露变化起次要作用且影响力逐渐减弱。

Using the daily precipitation datasets from 78 meteorological stations in Hubei province during 1971—2015,the average rainstorm intensity in 1971—1980,1981—1990,1991—2000,2001—2010,2011—2015 were firstly calculated,respectively. Then combined with gross national products（ GDP） for each county in 1980,1990,2000,2010,2015 and established model of ＂rainstorm intensity-economic loss rate＂,to investigate the spatial-temporal patterns of economic exposure to rainstorm. Moreover,the contribution rate of rainstorm,economic development and their coupling effects to economic exposure were analyzed. The results showed that：（ 1） Economic exposure to rainstorm of Hubei province had grown rapidly by 23 times from 1980（ 1. 4 billion yuan） to 2015（ 33 billion yuan）; the intensity of exposure had also been aggravated.（ 2） The spatial patterns of economic exposure were closely related to the change of rainstorm and economy,which is higher in the east,forming a high exposure belt along the Yangtze River headed by the Wuhan Metropolitan Area.（ 3） Economic development played a leading role in economic exposure,and its contribution had an increase trend; the rainstorm and coupling effects played a secondary role with a weakening impact.