维修保障策略对持续安全发展影响的研究

Study on influence of maintenance support strategy on sustainable safety development of airlines

为解决航空公司维修部门维修保障能力与发展的矛盾所引发的安全问题,对维修部门的主要业务进行系统分析,运用系统动力学（SD）方法建立持续安全发展与维修保障策略的关系模型;利用Vensim软件进行仿真模拟,研究维修人员排班任务量、维修人员招聘通过率、维修人员晋升通过率、航材订购计划审批通过率和工具设备引进率通过率等变量,对不安全事件数量和维修保障架次的影响。结果表明：关注正点水平的策略,能够大幅提高维修保障架次,但会造成不安全事件数量的增加;关注维修质量的策略,虽使不安全事件数量下降,但会减缓航空公司的发展;协调发展的策略既能保证飞机的维修安全,又能保障航空公司的持续发展。

In order to resolve the safety incidents caused by the contradiction between the maintenance capability of the airline maintenance department and the sustainable safety development of the airlines,the main business activities of the maintenance department were systematically analyzed,and a simulation dynamic model was built for the relationshios between the maintenance support capability and the sustainable safety development by using SD method. Through simulation by Vensim,effects of variables such as the workload of the maintenance staff,the employment rate of the new staff,the promotion rate of the senior staff,the approval rate of the aircraft material purchasing plan and the importing rate of the maintenance tools and equipment,on both the number of unsafe events and the quantity of the maintenance supporting flights. The study demonstrates that the strategy of ensuring the punctuality of the airline flight improves greatly the quantity of the maintenance supporting flights,but raises the number of unsafe events,that the strategy of ensuring the quality of aircraft maintenance lowers the number of unsafe events,but hinders greatly the development of airlines,and that the strategy giving consideration to both the maintenance capability of the airline maintenance department and the sustainable safety development of the airlines guarantees the maintenance safety,as well as the sustainable development of the airlines.