基于耗散结构的重大决策社会风险态势判别模型

Dissipative structure theory based model for major decision-making social risk situation discrimination model

为提高政府对重大决策社会风险的治理能力,基于耗散结构理论,构建社会风险态势识别模型。首先,利用社会系统熵增累积量和熵流累积量构建社会风险态势判别函数,根据布鲁塞尔器及其转义给出风险态势判别规则;然后,针对风险因素间存在非线性交互作用,提出利用模糊测度和Choquet积分计算社会系统在各时间节点的熵增和熵流,并开发熵增累积量和熵流累积量计算方法;最后,以某市PX项目决策为例进行实证分析。结果表明：加大熵流累积量,减小熵增累积量,有助于减小社会风险,使危险状态转化为安全状态。

In order to improve the government ＇ s ability to manage social risk from major decisionmaking,a social risk situation discrimination model was built based on the dissipative structure theory.First,the entropy production accumulation and entropy flow accumulation in social system were used to construct a social risk situation discrimination function. The discriminant rule of the function was given according to Brusselator and its transferred meaning. Then,to adapt the nonlinear interaction among social risk factors,fuzzy measure and Choquet integral were used to calculate the entropy production and entropy flow in the social system at the different time nodes. At the same time,a method was worked out to calculate the accumulation of entropy production and the accumulation of entropy flow in the social system.Finally,the model was used to discriminant social risk situation caused by a PX project in a certain city.The results show that both increasing the accumulation of entropy flow and reducing the accumulation ofentropy production can decrease the social risk,transforming a dangerous situation to a security situation.