“一带一路”沿线东道国政府质量对中国对外直接投资的影响——基于因子分析的实证研究

The Influence of the Host Government Quality on China's Direct Investment along“the Belt and Road”:An Empirical Analysis

现阶段中国在推进"一带一路"建设中面临着诸多不确定因素。其中,东道国政府质量低下可能导致的一系列风险未能得到应有的重视,这主要是源于有关政府质量的评价在学术界尚未形成共识。通过构建政府质量评价的理论模型,借助瑞典哥德堡大学政府质量研究中心调查数据库,运用因子分析得出政府质量评价的微观路径。模型从"政府理性"、"政府效率"和"政府自律"考察政府质量,发现"政府理性"对于政府质量的影响程度最大。发达国家在各因子评分上普遍高于发展中国家,但中国对外直接投资的增长在政府质量较低的发展中国家明显高于政府质量高的发达国家,尤其在"一带一路"沿线的投资状况更是如此。

In the process of promoting the Belt and Road Initiative,China faces many risks among which the low quality of host governments has not gotten the attention it deserves. It is mainly because the evaluation of government quality hasn's reached a consensus yet. Based on the dataset of the government quality research center at the University of Gothenburg,this paper used factor analysis and obtained an evaluation model of government quality. The model investigates government quality from three aspects: government rationality,government efficiency and government self-discipline,among which"government rationality"had the largest influence on government quality. It was found that developed countries generally had higher scores on each factor than developing countries,but China's foreign direct investment grew faster towards countries with low er ranking in government quality than with higher ranking countries. Especially along "the Belt and Road",the growth of China's investment was much more significant. It is an urgent problem for China: How to achieve a win-win situation for our foreign investments with the relatively low government quality of host countries.