从全球化到逆全球化思潮下的欧美发达国家制造业回归效果分析

Analysis on the Effect of“Manufacturing Return”in Developed European Countries and the U. S. from Globalization to Anti-Globalization Trend

2008年金融危机后众多国家采取措施重振经济,欧美主要发达国家实施了程度不一的"制造业回归"政策。从全球化到逆全球化思潮下,"制造业回归"政策一方面使欧美发达国家在实施该政策前后经济发展发生了变化,另一方面又使该政策的实施国与未出台相应政策的国家产生了差异。利用双重差分模型评估欧美发达国家"制造业回归"的效果发现:欧美主要发达国家制造业尚未恢复至金融危机前水平,虽然该政策对经济的影响不稳定,但其促进了生产性服务业的发展和出口的增长;同时,成本寻求型企业也同样享有政策红利,技术水平高的行业复苏较快;此外,"制造业回归"政策对促进总就业效果不显著。

Many countries took measures to revive the economy after the 2008 financial crisis. The major developed countries in Europe and the U. S. implemented "manufacturing return"policies of varying degrees. From globalization to anti-globalization,the policy of "manufacturing return"made those countries undergo changes in their economic development; on the other hand,there are differences between the countries which implemented the policy and those not.Therefore,the article uses the Difference in Differences( DID) to evaluate the effect of "manufacturing returns"in the major developed countries in Europe and the U. S. The result shows that the manufacturing industries of these countries have not recovered to the level before the financial crisis. Although the impact of the policy is not stable on the economy,it has promoted the development of producer services and the growth of exports. At the same time,the cost-seeking enterprises also enjoy the same benefits of the policy,and the industries of high technical level recover faster. In addition,the policy of "manufacturing return"has no significant effect on the promotion of employment.