不同属性景区游憩价值评估的最适计数模型研究——以北京植物园和北海公园为例

Study on Optimal Count Data Model for Recreational Value Assessment of Different Types of Attractions:Cases of Beijing Botanical Garden and Beihai Park

游憩价值是指游客在景区从事休闲游憩活动所产生的效益。游憩价值评估有助于景区管理者了解景区价值,并辅助制定相关管理决策。虽然旅行费用法在我国已有大量实践,但对于个人旅行费用法的研究相对较少;特别是对于自然和人文不同属性的景区,采用ITCM的何种模型能获得最优结果更鲜有探索。本文采用个人旅行费用法中的计数模型方法,分别应用截断泊松模型与截断负二项模型,对北海公园和北京植物园进行游憩价值评估。研究结果表明,无论对于自然还是人文类型景区,截断负二项模型均比截断泊松模型具有更佳的拟合度,采用该模型计算得到2016年北京植物园和北海公园的人均游憩价值分别为477.90元、959.50元。北海公园价值更高的原因,可能与人文景观更易为游客感知、且北海公园具有更高比例的外地游客有关。

The recreational value refers to the benefits that tourists acquire from leisure activities in tourist attractions. The recreational value assessment can help managers understand the true value of attractions and come up with related management policies. Although the Travel Cost Method has been widely used in China, the studies on Individual Travel Cost Method are relatively few, and the studies are even fewer on which ITCM model can work better for natural or human attractions respectively. The Count Data Model, one of the ways of ITCM, is employed to assess the recreational value of Beihai Park and Beijing Botanic Garden in this thesis. Specifically, the Truncated Poisson Model and the Truncated Negative Binomial Model are compared to demonstrate the optimal model for the two cases. The results show that TNB model has a higher fitting degree for both attractions. With TNB model, the recreational value of Beijing Botanical Garden and Beihai Park in 2016 are assessed as RMB 477.90 and RMB 959.50 respectively, which may be caused by more perceivable cultural landscape for tourists and more outof-region tourists in Beihai Park.