黄山市暴雨强度公式的研制

Research on the rainstorm intensity formula of Huangshan City

利用黄山市屯溪气象站1987～2016年连续30a的降水观测资料,获得降水量统计样本;采用"年最大值法"进行资料选样,按照P—Ⅲ分布、耿贝尔分布和指数分布进行分布曲线拟合得到雨强—重现期—历时(i-P-t)三联表;采用最小二乘法、高斯牛顿法求解暴雨强度分公式和总公式参数,根据误差最小原则确定最优方法,得到黄山市暴雨强度公式。结果表明:耿贝尔分布和指数分布各降水历时下的相对均方根误差比P-Ⅲ分布较小;采用最小二乘法参数组合方法计算分公式和总公式误差比高斯牛顿法较小,精度满足国标要求,是目前较为合适的暴雨强度公式计算方法,推荐为最优的暴雨强度公式。

Based on the rainfall observation data of 30 consecutive years from 1987 to 2016 of Tunxi meteorological observatory in Huangshan city, the precipitation statistics were obtained. The annual maximum value method was used to select the data, and the distribution curve of P-III distribution, Gengbeier distribution and Index distribution were fitted to obtain the three-linked table of intensity- period repeated-time interval （i-P-t） . The least square method and Gaussian Newton method were used to calculate the parameters of divisional and total rainfall intensity formula. The results showed that the relative mean root errors of Gengbeier distribution and Index distribution were smaller than that of P-III distribution. The least square method is the most suitable method for calculating rainstorm intensity formula, which has smaller error and higher precision than Gauss Newton method, which was recommended as the best rainstorm intensity formula of Huangshan city.