基于层次分析法的广西雷灾风险区划

Risk zoning in Guangxi based on analytic hierarchy process

利用广西地面观测雷暴资料(1960～2013年)、二维雷电监测定位资料(2009～2016年)和广西区统计局年鉴资料(2005-2016年),以广西全区14个地市行政区域为评估单元,考虑人口密度以及经济发展因素,选取年均雷暴日、地闪密度、人口密度、单位面积上的GDP总产值作为评估指标,建立层次分析模型,得到广西全区市级雷电灾害风险区划结果。结果表明:梧州、钦州、玉林、贵港、防城港、贺州所在行政区域属极高雷灾风险等级;北海、来宾、南宁、崇左、百色、桂林所在行政区域属高雷灾风险等级;河池、柳州所在行政区域属中等雷灾风险等级。

Using Guangxi ground observation data （1960-2013） , two-dimensional lightning monitoring and positioning data （2009-2016） , and the Yearbook of Guangxi Statistics Bureau （2005-2016） , the evaluation unit was the 14 city administrative regions of the whole Guangxi region; considering the population density and the economic development factors, selecting the annual thunderstorm days, ground flash density, population density, and the total output value of GDP per unit area as evaluation indexes, a hierarchical analysis model was set up to get the result of the regional lightning hazard zoning in the whole Guangxi. The results showed that the administrative region of Wuzhou, Qinzhou, Yulin, Guigang, Fangchenggang, and Hezhou belonged to the risk grade of high lightning disaster; Beihai, the guests, Nanning, Chongzuo, Baise, and Guilin belonged to the high lightning risk grade, and the administrative region of Hechi and Liuzhou belonged to the risk grade of moderate lightning.