特朗普政府台海政策初析

Analysis to the Donald Trump Administration's Taiwan Straits Policy

特朗普从企图把"一个中国"政策作为谈判筹码到表示恪守"一个中国"政策。发生这种重大转变的主要原因包括:中国综合国力增长;中美在经济与安全领域相互依存在上升;通过中美长期广泛的交流,台湾问题是中国核心利益和"一个中国"是中美关系政治基础已经成为美国各界有识之士的主流观念。未来影响特朗普政府台海政策的另外几个重要因素有:美国全球战略、亚太战略与对华战略;美国对其在台湾利益的评估;美国国会亲台势力的影响;美国军方和军工集团的影响;特朗普政府政策团队的组成。特朗普政府台海政策未来走向是,保持"一个中国"政策的模糊性,提升美台官方关系和加强军事关系;增加对台军售数量和提升质量;可能谈判签署美台双边自由贸易协定;支持台湾扩大国际空间。特朗普政府将越来越多面临美台关系中的承诺困境。

The major reasons of big change of U.S. President Donald Trump from attempting to make use of Taiwan Question as a ＂bargaining chip＂ to recognizing ＂One China＂ policy are： the rapid growing of China＇s national comprehensive power; the increasing interdependence in both economic and security fields between China and the U.S.; through the long-term and broad exchanges between the two countries, the concepts that Taiwan is the core national interests of China and ＂One China＂ is the political basis of China-U.S. relationship have become the main stream of American people of all walks of life. Other important facts which have impacts on the Taiwan policy of the Trump Administration in the near future include： U.S. global strategy, Asia-Pacific strategy and China policy; U.S. evaluation about its interests on Taiwan; the influence of the pro-Taiwan forces in the U.S. Congress; the influence of U.S. military and defense industry; the composition of the Trump Administration＇s policy team and so on. The future trend of the Trump Administration＇s Taiwan Straits policy will include： to keep the ambiguity of U.S. ＂One China＂ policy, so as to upgrade the official relations between the U.S. and Taiwan; to increase the number and quality of U.S. arms sale to Taiwan and strengthen U.S.-Taiwan military relations; to increase the possibility to negotiate and sign FTA agreement between the U.S. and Taiwan; to support the expansion of Taiwan＇s international space. The Trump Administration will meet more commitment dilemma in the U.S.-Taiwan relations in the near future.