两岸关系指数研究初论

A Preliminary Study on Cross-Strait Relations Index

要推动两岸关系和平发展,就必须全面认识两岸关系的发展现状并准确把握两岸关系的发展趋势。目前国内外两岸关系分析,大多数都是定性分析,较少定量研究,两岸关系的大数据研究及指数研究更是几乎空白。本文大胆提出将指数研究引进两岸关系研究领域,借鉴指数理论相关成果,将两岸关系指数定义为:综合反映不能直接相加的两岸关系发展总体状况与动态的相对数,初步搭建了两岸关系指数指标体系模本,探讨了两岸关系指数的应用,分析了两岸关系指数研究的难点,试图倡导对两岸关系研究进行"语法"革命,争取将来为国家对台政策决策提供数据支撑,为国家对台实践提供第三方评估体系,为学者研究台湾问题及两岸关系提供数据平台,并为指数研究做出贡献。

In order to promote the peaceful development of cross-straits relations, we must fully understand the current situation and grasp the development trend of cross-straits relations accurately. At present, most of the studies on cross-strait relations are qualitative researches, while quantitative research is few. There have been few studies on big data or index of cross-strait relations. This paper proposes to introduce the index research into the research field of cross-strait relations boldly. It draws on theories related to index and gives definition to cross-strait relations index（the index reflect the overall situation and dynamic state of cross-strait relations）, constructs the index system of cross-straits relations preliminarily, and discusses the application and difficulties of the study. This research attempts to promote a grammatical revolution in the field of Taiwan study, to offer data support and third-party assessment system for national policies and decisions toward Taiwan in the future, to provide data platform to scholars who study Taiwan and cross-straits relations, and to make contribution to the study of index.