区域间贸易是否引致区域间碳排放转移?——基于2002—2012年区域间投入产出表的实证分析

Has inter-regional trade led to the transfer of inter-regional carbon emissions:an empirical study based on inter-regional input-output model from 2002 to 2012

商品与服务的跨区域流动承载着商品生产与服务提供过程中二氧化碳排放的跨区域流入与流出,在现有的中国区域间分工模式存在显著差异的背景下,部分区域可能通过区域间贸易将碳排放量转移至其他区域,不利于中国整体二氧化碳减排目标的实现。基于区域间投入产出模型构建了区域间隐含碳排放转移的测度模型,在此基础上测算了2002—2012年中国八大区域间贸易引致的碳排放转移量,以及区域间贸易隐含碳排放转移的空间特征和产业特征,结果表明:(1)各区域内贸引致的碳排放转入对其碳排放总量的影响程度显著高于出口,故区域间贸易隐含碳排放已成为各区域节能减排不可忽视的重要矛盾;(2)经济发展水平较高的京津区域、北部沿海区域、东部沿海区域、南部沿海区域为主要的净贸易隐含碳排放转出区域,且转出趋势有所增强,上述区域通过贸易将碳排放转移至东北、中部、西北等经济欠发达区域;(3)西南区域自2007年起由贸易隐含碳排放净转入区域变为净转出区域,其中3/4以上转移至西北区域;(4)欠发达区域的净贸易隐含碳排放转入主要集中于资源密集型产业,而经济发达区域的净贸易隐含碳排放转入主要体现在劳动密集型产业和加工制造业。在此基础上提出了协调区域碳减排协作机制,降低经济欠发达区域贸易隐含碳排放转入的建议。

Cross-regional flows of goods and services carry cross-regional inflows and outflows of carbon dioxide emissions during the production process. Given the significant differences in the existing patterns of division of labor among different regions in China,some regions may transfer the carbon emissions to other regions,which is not conducive to China＇s overall goal of reducing carbon dioxide emissions. Based on the inter-regional input-output method,the paper studies the spatial characteristics and industrial characteristics of the CO2 emissions transfer in embedded carbon emissions in inter-regional trade in China,results show that：（ 1） the embedded carbon emissions of inter-regional trade have been become the major problem regarding emission reduction in all regions;（ 2） the Beijing-Tianjin region,the northern coastal region,the eastern coastal region and the southern coastal region are the leading net outflow regions of embedded carbon emissions in inter-regional trade,the above-mentioned regions has transferred their carbon emissions to underdeveloped regions such as northeast,central and northwestern regions through inter-regional trade;（ 3） the southwest region has shifted as the net inflow region to the net outflow region of embedded carbon emissions in inter-regional trade since 2007,three-quarters of which transferred to the northwestern region;（ 4）the main net embedded carbon emissions inflow industries in the underdeveloped regions are resource-intensive industries,while the net embedded carbon emissions inflow industries in the developed regions are mainly labor-intensive and manufacturing industries.