中国经济增长的能源尾效测算与分析——基于拥挤效应的实证研究

The measurement and analysis on China's economic growth drag of energy:an empirical study based on congestion effect

能源消费的"副产品"——环境污染会导致稳态增长率下滑,引发经济增长中的能源尾效。基于两部门内生增长理论,在纳入环境污染拥挤效应的框架下测算与分析中国经济增长的能源尾效。在借助变系数模型测度各投入要素产出弹性的基础上,对中国省际能源尾效进行估算,结果表明,由于能源供需结构失衡和环境制约对经济增长的拖累较为明显,1998—2015年能源尾效使得中国经济增长率下降10.55%。此外,能源空间结构失衡以及区域发展非均衡性会导致差异化的省际能源尾效,而能源消费结构失衡则会进一步强化能源尾效。

The potential limit of energy supply and environmental pollution of energy consumption will lead to decline of steady growth rate,which is economic growth drag of energy. Based on a two-sector endogenous growth model,this paper proposes an estimate and analysis about China＇s economic growth drag of energy under congestion effect of environmental pollution.By using varying coefficient model to measure the elasticity of input factors,our results indicate that economic growth drag of energy induced economic growth rate decreased by 10. 55% of China from 1998 to 2011 due to the energy structural imbalance of supply and demand and environmental constraints. Furthermore,the imbalance of energy space structural and disequilibrium of regional economic development lead to various energy drags of different provinces. And the imbalance of energy consumption will intensify economic growth drag of energy.