长三角地区城市的房价偏离及其溢出效应

Housing price deviation and spillover effect of Yangtze River Delta cities

通过建立住房基本面价格模型,实证检验长三角地区城市经济基本面与其实际住房价格的关系,并估算出每个城市的房价偏离度,结果发现,经济增长、人口城镇化和信贷扩张是近年来长三角地区城市房价上升的主要推手。基于房价偏离的视角,分别从房价基本面部分和非基本面部分两个方面,考察长三角核心城市上海、南京和杭州对其他城市的溢出效应。结果表明,上海在长三角区域内展现出强势的中心地位,也是该区域房价波动的源头。另外,长三角地区城市之间的房价溢出效应主要体现在基本面价格上,而房价偏离的溢出效应强度并不大,方向也不稳定。这有助于厘清长三角地区城市住房价格之间的溢出效应特征,为防范房地产市场系统风险提供参考。

This paper establishes a fundamental housing price model to test the relationship between economic fundamentals of Yangtze River Delta cities and their actual housing prices. Then estimates the housing price deviations of each city. This study finds that economic growth,population urbanization and credit expansion are the main driving forces of housing prices in the Yangtze River Delta cities in recent years. Based on the perspective of house price deviation to examine the spillover effects of Shanghai,Nanjing and Hangzhou,the core cities in the Yangtze River Delta,on other cities from aspects of the fundamental and non-fundamental housing prices respectively. The results show that Shanghai is not only the central city,but also the source of housing price fluctuations in the Yangtze River Delta region. In addition,the house price spillover effects among cities in the Yangtze River Delta are mainly reflected in the fundamental housing prices,while the intensity of spillover effects of housing price deviations are not strong and the direction is not stable. The conclusions will help clarify the characteristics of spillovers between housing prices in the Yangtze River Delta cities,and provide references for formulating measures to prevent systemic risks in the real estate market.