特朗普主义兴起的经济根源

The Economic Roots of Trumpism

特朗普赢得2016年总统选举,在很大程度上是因位于"铁锈地带"的三个州,有足够的选票从民主党转投共和党。经济混乱对选民投票给反建制派的候选人,起了至关重要的作用。经济混乱缘自二元经济的发展。一端是低廉且停滞的工资、上升的债务、下降的社会地位、减少的相对收入以及随之而来的绝望;另一端是富豪和超级富豪收入的急剧上升。这一超过30年的分化过程,始于里根经济学及其减税政策,把巨额财富及政治权力赋予富人,并加速了工会力量的衰败。在克林顿执政期间,持续的金融去监管和高度全球化,使这一过程得以继续。老少两届布什政府继续用减税政策宠惯超级富豪。奥巴马救超级富豪、有意忽视大众的政策,使这一过程达到顶峰。被希拉里斥为"遭人唾弃之辈"的社会群体,被前后五届美国政府所轻视,终于起来反抗,支持一位无能的反建制派铁腕人物。

Donald Trump won the election in 2016 largely because enough voters in three states,all in the Rustbelt,switched their vote from Democrat to Republican.Economic dislocations played a crucial role in persuading many voters to vote for an anti-establishment candidate.The sources of the dislocation were the development of a dual economy characterized at one end by low and stagnating wages,increasing debt,downward social mobility,declining relative incomes,and the hopelessness accompanying them while at the other end of the income distribution the economy was simply booming.This was longer than a three-decade process that started with Reaganomics and its tax cuts that privileged the rich and conferred immense wealth,and its concomitant,political power,on them.Reaganomics also accelerated the decline in the power of unions.The process continued under Bill Clinton’s administration along with financial deregulation and hyper-globalization.George Bush continued to pamper the superrich with his tax policies.The process culminated with Barack Obama’s bailing out the superrich and his benign neglect of Mainstreet.Five administrations’disinterest in the social group Hillary Clinton referred to flippantly as"the deplorables"culminated in the revolt of the masses in favor of an incompetent anti-establishment strongman.