货物出口贸易、对外直接投资加剧了母国的环境污染吗?——基于“污染天堂假说”的逆向考察

Does the export of goods and outward foreign direct investment exacerbate the environmental pollution in the home country? Reverse investigation based on the “pollution heaven hypothesis”

在Copeland与Taylor的生产—污染模型的基础上,通过构建代表性企业、代表性消费者的一般均衡模型,从理论上分析了货物出口贸易及对外直接投资对环境污染的作用机制。通过选取中国30个省份2003—2015年的数据,采用纵横向"拉开档次法"测算环境污染综合系数,并分别建立模型对其联合效应、门槛效应进行检验。最终得出三个主要结论:(1)货物出口贸易与对外直接投资对环境的影响效果并不相同,货物出口贸易对环境有积极影响,而对外投资和环境污染之间呈不显著的正相关关系;(2)货物出口贸易与对外直接投资的联合效应表明出口贸易抑制环境污染,并且现阶段对外直接投资会增加我国污染排放,反驳了那些认为中国对外直接投资会减少本国污染物排放的观点;(3)出口贸易在加剧环境污染的过程中存在双重门槛效应,且随着对外直接投资的扩大,其对环境的负面影响效果将会减弱。

Based on the production-pollution model of Copeland and Taylor,this paper builds a general equilibrium model of representative enterprises and representative consumers to analyze the mechanism of the export of goods and outward direct foreign investment on environmental pollution. This paper employs the vertical and horizontal ＂pull-down method＂to measure the comprehensive coefficient of environmental pollution,using 30 inter-provincial data from 2003 to 2015 in China.And then,we establish econometric models to test the combined effect and threshold effect. Three main conclusions are as follows. First,the effects of export of goods and outward foreign direct investment on the environment are not the same.Export of goods has positive effect on the environment,while there is no significant positive correlation between outward foreign investment and environmental pollution. Second,the combined effect of export of goods and outward foreign direct investment shows that export will restrain environmental pollution,and outward foreign direct investment will increase pollution emissions in China at this stage,which refutes the view that outward foreign direct investment will reduce domestic pollutant emissions. Third,the export has a double threshold effect in the process of aggravating environmental pollution,and its negative impact on the environment will be weakened with the expansion of outward foreign direct investment.