我国宏观审慎政策与货币政策的协调问题研究——基于房价波动的非对称性影响

The Coordination between Macro-prudential Policy and Monetary Policy——Analysis based on the Asymmetric Effect of House Price

本文尝试建立一个包含偶尔束紧抵押贷款约束和宏观审慎政策的非线性DSGE模型,用来分析房价波动对我国宏观经济的非对称影响。结果表明,在房价持续上升时期,随着抵押贷款约束松弛,进一步的房价上涨对消费和产出的刺激作用有限;然而在房价持续下跌时,银行贷款的紧缩会在很大程度上加剧经济的衰退。面对房地产市场价格的波动,宏观审慎政策和货币政策的组合有助于改善社会福利,然而房价上涨时期的政策效果要明显弱于同等幅度的房价下跌时期。

This study examines the macroeconomic asymmetries caused by housing price fluctuations. To address this issue, we build a nonlinear general equilibrium model which emphasizes occasionally binding collateral constrains and macro- prudential policy. Our result shows that as the housing boom unfolded, collateral constrains turned slack, while the expanding housing wealth made a small contribution to the output and consumption. By contrast, the subsequent housing price collapse tightened the constrain and sharply exacerbated the economic recession. In face of the housing price fluctuations, macropru- dential policy and monetary policy can be used to improve social welfare. Nevertheless, the benefits are much smaller in the presence of the increase in house prices.