城市化对中国服务业全要素生产率影响的门槛效应

The Threshold Effect of Urbanization on The Total Factor Productivity of China's Service Industry

运用面板门槛效应模型,基于2006~2015年省际面板数据,将城市化作为门槛变量,实证分析城市化对中国服务业全要素生产率的影响。结果表明:城市化对服务业全要素生产率存在显著的门槛特征。具体来说,在城市化程度越过门槛值之前,城市化对服务业全要素生产率的影响并不显著;在城市化程度越过门槛值之后,城市化对服务业全要素生产率有显著的正向影响。同时,以人均GDP作为门槛变量后发现,当人均GDP未越过门槛值时,城市化对服务业全要素生产率的影响并不显著;当人均GDP越过门槛值时,城市化对服务业全要素生产率有显著的正向影响。研究结论为中国正在推进的城市化进程提供了清晰的政策启示:应坚持推进城市化的政策导向。

Based on the provincial panel data from 2006 to 2015,the urbanization is used as a threshold variable in this study to to empirically analyze the impact of urbanization on total factor productivity of China＇s service industry according to the panel threshold effect model. The result shows that urbanization has a significant threshold impact on total factor productivity of the service industry. Specifically,before the degree of urbanization exceeds the threshold,urbanization has no significant effect on the total factor productivity of the service industry;after the urbanization degree exceeds the threshold,urbanization has a significantly positive effect on the total factor productivity of the service industry. Meanwhile,when GDP per capita is used as a threshold variable,it is found that when GDP per capita does not exceed threshold,urbanization had no significant effect on total factor productivity of the service industry; when GDP per capita exceeds threshold,urbanization has a significantly positive effect on the total factor productivity of the service industry. The conclusion of this study can provide a clear policy revelation for the urbanization process in China： it is necessary to stick to the policy orientation of promoting urbanization.