基于贝叶斯网络的城市地下污水管线失效概率分析

Analysis of failure probability of urban underground sewage pipelines based on Bayesian network

面向城市地下污水管线风险定量化分析需求,构建了基于故障树与贝叶斯网络的管线失效概率定量分析模型。利用故障树分析法分析城市地下污水管线失效影响因素并构建故障树,利用映射关系将其转化为贝叶斯网络模型;应用模糊集理论对基本事件失效概率进行量化,以此为先验概率输入贝叶斯网络中进行定量计算。以某段污水管线为例进行失效概率分析,结果表明,该模型能量化污水管线失效概率,识别管线失效关键致因,并为污水管线失效事故预防提供决策依据。

For the purpose of quantifying the risk of urban underground sewage pipeline, a quantitative analysis model of pipeline failure probability based on fault tree analysis and Bayesian network was worked out. Analyzed the factors of urban underground sewage pipeline failure by fault tree analysis, and constructed the fault tree, then transform it into Bayesian network model by using mapping relationship. Fuzzy set theory was applied to determine the fuzzy failure probability of basic events, as the practical prior probabilities to be inputted into Bayesian network for quanti- tative analysis. This model was applied to a sewage pipeline failure probability analysis, the result shows that this model can quantify sewage pipeline failure probability, and identify the critical fail- ure factors, and provide decision basis for accident prevention of sewage pipeline failure.