转型时期中国最优货币政策反应机制研究

China's Optimal Monetary Policy Rule in Transition Period

准确识别中央银行政策偏好对完善货币政策调控体系,适应"新常态"下复杂多变的经济环境意义重大。文章在央行二次分段损失函数和新凯恩斯宏观经济框架下,推导出转型时期我国最优非线性数量型货币政策规则,并以此为基础探索了中央银行的政策反应特征,估计结果发现:第一,我国央行存在明显的"促增长"和规避经济收缩的非对称偏好,当经济增长缺口发生正向偏离时,货币当局整体上仍增加货币供给以刺激经济进一步增长,而当增长缺口发生负向偏离时,政策对经济增长的关注强度大幅增加以规避经济收缩;第二,央行对通货膨胀目标反应相对不足,致使货币政策稳定物价的功能受限;第三,中国兼具转轨经济体和新兴市场经济体的特征,故我国央行更加偏好经济增长目标,但随着宏观金融环境的变化,最优货币政策规则也将随之调整。

It is of great significance to accurately identify the policy preferences in the central bank.In this paper,under the new Keynesian macroeconomic framework,we deduce the optimal non-linear monetary policy rule using piecewise quadratic loss function of the central bank.On this basis,we explore the central bank's asymmetric policy preferences.We get following conclusions:Firstly,the central bank has a significant"pro-growth"preference.When the economic growth gap deviates positively,the easing monetary policy is implemented to stimulate economy to grow further.And when the growth gap deviates negatively,the intensity of monetary policy pegging on economic growth target increases significantly to avoid economic contraction.Secondly,the central bank tends to ignore the inflation target,resulting that the function of stabilizing prices of monetary policy is limited.Thirdly,since China's economy is still in the transition stage,China's central bank prefers promoting economic growth.But with the macro financial environment changes,the optimal monetary policy rules will also be adjusted.