1990～2013年河南省县域人口、经济和粮食生产重心的迁移轨迹与耦合特征——兼议与社会剥夺的关系

The Evolutionary Trend and the Coupling Relation of Gravity Center Moving of County-level Population Distribution, Economical Development and Grain Production During 1990-2013 in Henan Province

基于社会剥夺理论,利用重心计算及空间耦合分析模型,研究了1990-2013年河南省县域人口重心、经济重心、粮食生产重心动态迁移及其空间耦合,并探讨其与社会发展水平之间的关系。结果表明：23 a来河南省经济、人口及粮食生产重心均在省域几何重心北部变动,空间错位格局日趋显著,变动一致性波动剧烈;2000年前人口重心与粮食重心耦合度较高,2000年后粮食重心与经济重心明显呈东南-西北路径背向偏离,粮食生产对经济重心迁移的影响持续下降,而人口重心与经济重心耦合度逐步提升;传统农区社会发展严重滞后于经济增长水平,粮食主产县区的＂粮食与民生倒挂＂特征显著。

The dynamic moving and spatial coupling of gravity center of county-level population distribution,economic development,and grain production in Henan Province has been researched in this article, and discussed the relationship between social development and above three factors based on the social theory, gravity center calculation and spatial coupling analysis model. The result showed that the spatial gravity centers of county-level economical development, population distribution and grain production have been moving in the north of geometric center of Henan Province. The consistency level changed sharply, and the spatial inconsistency pattern was very significant during the past 23 years. Before 2000, the spatial coupling level between county-level population distribution and grain production was high, and after 2000, the spatial coupling level changed among the gravity center of county-level economic development, population distribution and grain production. The gravity center of grain production and economic development moved oppositely in the southeast-northwest direction, and the influence of grain production to the gravity move of economic development has been decreasing, while the coupling level between the gravity centers of population distribution and economical development has been increasing during the same time. The social development in the eastern Henan shows a low-level spatial equilibrium with the coexistence of inversion phenomenon between grain production and government receipts and grain production and people＇s livelihood. The social development level in rural counties obviously lags behind that in urban areas. The spatial pattern of social inequality at county level in Henan driven by the factors, such as regional economic development, social policies, spatial strategy, and path dependence, is tabbed the constitutive characteristic in the period of comprehensive socioeconomic transformation in China. Consequently, two steps on how to improve the county-level population distribution, economic development and grain production are proposed. On the one hand, based on the cognitive of China breadbasket, the farmland protection, technical support, policy tilt to grain yield should be forcefully developed to ensure the grain production scale in Henan and regional grain safe. On the another hand, some reasonable policies must be proposed to encourage the deep process of agricultural products and foster the development of township enterprise, to accept more surplus labor in rural society.