东北地区旅游经济影响因素时空特征研究

Spatial-temporal Characteristic Study on Impact Factors of Tourism Economy in Northeastern China

从中观层面以东北地区41个市域为分析单元,选择东北振兴战略实施以来2004、2009和2015年截面数据,采用ESDA法分析旅游经济发展的空间关联特征,运用OLS和GWR模型分析旅游经济和旅游产业因子、消费因子、投资因子之间的关系,以此挖掘旅游经济影响因素的时空结构信息。结果表明：（1）旅游经济发展呈显著空间正相关,相关性逐渐增大;（2）OLS回归结果表明,旅游产业因子对旅游经济发展的影响强度最大,在旅游产业发展中始终起基础性决定作用,其次为消费因子和投资因子,后两者差别不大;（3）GWR回归结果显示,模型3 a拟合优度均比OLS有所提高,回归系数均为正值,但分布规律不同;旅游产业因子回归系数高值区经历了西南部-中南部-东北部转移,向外围圈层递减;消费因子回归系数高值区由东北部向东南部转移,向外围逐渐递减;投资因子回归系数高值区则由东北部-中南部-东北部转移,向外围逐渐递减。

Taking cities of Northeastern China as the study object from micro level and selecting 2004, 2009 and 2015 section data since carrying out strategy of rejuvenating in Northeast China, this article analysis spatial correlation characteristics of tourism economic development by ways of ESDA, and the relationship between tourism economy and tourism industry factor, consumer factor, investment factor using OLS and GWR model, for the sake of excavating space and time structure information of tourism economy influence factors.The result shows that： 1） Development of tourism economy shows positive spatial autocorrelation significantly, and the correlation increased gradually. 2） OLS regression result shows that： the influence strength of tourism industry factor on the development of tourism economic is the largest, which always played a basic decision role in the development of the tourism industry, followed by consumer factor and investment factor, the latter two had little difference. 3） GWR regression results show that： GWR goodness of fit has improved and regression coefficients are all positive but the distribution is different. Tourism industry factor high value area of regression coefficient experienced moving from southwest to south-central, then to northeast, and diminishing to the outer circularly. Consumption factors shifted from northeast to the southeast, and diminished to peripheral gradually. Investment factors transferred from northeast to south-central, then to northeast, and diminished to peripheral gradually, too.