基于马尔可夫链的中医药疗效预测模型构建与探索

Construction and Exploration of TCM Clinical Efficacy Evaluation Based on Markov Model

目的：探索基于马尔可夫链的预测模型构建方法,并尝试将其引入中医药领域构建中医药疗效评价预测模型。方法：依据马尔可夫预测模型的数据特征与建模要点,以中医药治疗气阴两虚型慢性肾脏病临床症状的序列为切入点,通过对病人服用中药后各节点疗效情况数据分析拟构建中医药疗效预测模型,并测试模型精度。结果：在基于166例气阴两虚型慢性肾脏病患者的症状数据构建的马尔可夫预测模型中,疗效预测结果与实际临床疗效相符的占72.9%,能较为准确地预测出临床疗效。结论：马尔可夫预测模型具有可操作性强、适应范围广和预测精度高的特点,可用于构建中医药疗效预测模型。

Objective： To explore the method to construct Markov Model and try to introduce it into the area of Traditional Chinese Medicine（ TCM） to construct the TCM clinical efficacy prediction model. Methods： Based on Markov Model modeling and exploring the construction method of Markov Model based on Chinese medicine data,taking the data of the clinical efficacy of TCM taken by patients with Qi and Yin deficiency and chronic kidney disease as an example,we built Markov prediction model and tested the models＇ accuracy. Results： Among the 166 prediction results,precise results accounted for 72. 9%,which proved that the prediction model constructed by this method had reliable prediction accuracy. Conclusion： The Markov Model possesses the characteristics of strong operability,wide adaptation range and high prediction accuracy,and can be applied to create traditional Chinese medicine clinical efficacy prediction models and thereby to assist TCM clinical practice and related research.