基于前景理论的易逝品溢价预售策略

Premium advance-selling strategy for perishable products based on prospect theory

市场中存在一些生命周期较短、供需之间匹配性较差且具有一定市场影响力的易逝品,这些产品往往存在一批忠实粉丝,他们愿意为确保得到该产品付出更高的预订价格。本文将针对易逝品的溢价预售问题,基于行为经济学的前景理论构建一个需求不确定条件下的零售商预售决策模型。模型将综合考虑产品预售过程中消费者的策略性购买行为、产品需求扩散效应以及产品的缺货损失和产品残值,以报童模型为基础构建前景理论的价值函数、概率和权重函数,进而形成预售决策模型,通过算例研究各因素对零售商预售策略的影响,对比分析期望效用理论与前景理论,为零售商的预售决策提供参考性建议。

There are some perishable products with short life style cycle and high influence in the market.The supply of these products can＇t meet all demand of customers.Some people are willing to pay higher price for these products in the advance selling phrase to obtain them.Aiming at the premium advance selling of perishable products,a model of retailer＇s advance selling decision-making under the condition of demand uncertainty was established based on prospect theory of behavioral economics.By considering the strategic buying behavior of consumer during advance selling process,the effect of product demand diffusion,and residual value and out-of-stock losses,the value function,subjective probability and decision weighting function were constructed based on newsvendor model for decision model of advance selling.The model was analyzed from all of influence factors in the numerical example.The differences between expected utility theory and prospect theory were analyzed in the numerical example,which provided some suggestion for retailers.