资源诅咒与产业结构的关系研究——基于PVAR模型的分析

Research on the Relationship between Resource Curse and Industrial Structure——Analysis Based on PVAR Model

运用经济、资源、环境和社会四个指数形成的多指标评价模型对资源诅咒系数进行度量，度量结果显现：在空间分布上，我国资源诅咒呈现西多东少的地理分布格局；从时间演变上，2003—2015年我国资源诅咒呈两极化收敛，东部资源诅咒系数变小，西部资源诅咒系数增大。在此基础上，利用PVAR模型测算了我国资源依赖度高低不同地区资源诅咒和产业结构之间的关系，测算结果显现：不论资源依赖度的高低，资源诅咒的存在都会影响产业结构的正常演进；资源依赖度高的地区，产业结构明显加剧了资源诅咒，而资源依赖度低的地区，产业结构不会加剧资源诅咒。

This paper measures the resource curse coefficient by the multi-index evaluation model that contains four indices of economics, resource, environment and society. Resuhs show that, from geographical perspective, resource curse presents a distribution pattern that east part is less than the middle and west. From time evolution perspective, resource curse presents a polarization in China from 2003 to 2015. The resource curse coefficient of the East part becomes smaller and smaller, but the West increases constantly. Based on those, it measures the relationship between the resource curse coefficient and industrial structure evolution of different degrees of resource dependence in our country by PVAR model. Results find that regardless of resource dependence being high and low, the existence of the resource curse will affect the normal evolution of industrial structure. In the regions where resource dependence is high, industrial structure exacerbates resource curse, but in the regions where resource dependence is low, it＇s not.