农民的社会经济地位与子女数量之间关系的实证研究

Relationship between socioeconomic status of farmers and the number of children

长期以来,学术界对于社会经济地位和生育之间是相互促进还是相互阻碍的问题一直存在着争议,为探讨当代中国农民的社会经济地位(家境)与生育行为之间的关系,从农民的家庭社会经济地位对亲生子女数量的影响和亲生子女数量对农民后来的家庭社会经济地位的影响两个角度,构建了理论模型,在2015、2016年分别对湘中和豫东农村1418、1416个户主家庭进行了调查,以各个家庭的子女数量为因变量,自变量分别为各个家庭当前社会经济地位、户主父亲以前的家庭成分、户主性别、户主年龄、户主受教育年限等,对这些因素进行有序probit回归和研究。研究发现,无论在湖南农村还是河南农村,家境较好的家庭子女数量也较多,反之,家境较差的家庭子女数较少;假定子女数量真的影响当前家庭社会经济地位,回归分析表明,子女数量对当前社会经济地位存在着正面的影响。研究结果表明,在中国农村"越穷越生,越生越穷"的说法不符合事实,农民家庭社会经济地位和生育之间是相互促进的关系,家庭社会经济地位在某种程度上的代际转移是一股强大的力量。

Whether socioeconomic status and fertility promote or hinder each other has been a controversial issue in academic circles for a long time. In order to explore the relationship between socioeconomic status（ family status） and fertility of contemporary Chinese peasants, this study conducted a theoretical model from the perspectives of the influence of peasant＇s family socioeconomic status on the quantity of biological children and the influence of the quantity of biological children on peasant＇s socioeconomic status. In 2015 and 2016,the research surveyed 1 418 and 1 416 heads of households in rural areas of central Hunan province and eastern Henan province respectively. In this study,the dependent variable is quantity of children in every household,and the independent variables are every household＇s current socioeconomic status,previous family composition of head of household＇s father,gender of head of household,age of head of household,educated years of head of household and so on. These elements were analyzed by ordered probit regression model. The research finds that whether in the rural areas of Hunan province or Henan province,the families with better life have more children,whereas the the families with poorer life with less children; assuming that the quantity of children really affects the current socioeconomic status of a family,the regression analysis shows that the quantity of children has a positive impact on the current socioeconomic status. The research findings show that in Chinese rural areas,the statement ＂the poorer they are,the more children they breed,the more children they breed; the poorer they will become ＂does not conform to the fact. Therefore,the socioeconomic status of peasant＇s family and fertility promote each other,and the socioeconomic status of peasant is,to some extent,a powerful force transferred from generation to generation.