深化开放中产业技术依赖与锁定效应——基于我国葡萄酒产业的实证

A study of technology dependence and lock-in effect in China's wine industrial development under open economy

选取1998-2014年期间中国葡萄酒产业相关数据为样本,运用数据包络分析法测度了产业技术进步,借鉴路径依赖与锁定理论,分析了深化开放中产业技术锁定效应及要素资源传导机制。研究表明:(1)中国葡萄酒产业全要素生产率平均增长速度为12.40%,全要素生产率增长是技术进步与技术效率变化共同作用的结果;(2)进口贸易对要素资源(物质资本、人力资本)的导向作用十分明显,葡萄酒进口每增加1%,物质资本和人力资本的使用分别增加0.35%和0.143%;出口贸易对要素资源配置的弱化作用明显,产业国际竞争力低下;(3)葡萄酒产业发展中存在明显的技术锁定效应,且人力资本是技术效率和全要素生产率锁定的主要影响途径。要素资源质的提高有利于中国葡萄酒产业摆脱开放中锁定效应的影响。

This paper measured the technological progress of China＇ s wine industry using the panel data of the industry from 1998 to 2014. Then based on the path dependence and lock - in theory, the technology lock - in effect and transmission mecha- nism？ of factor resources were analyzed. The results showed that （1） the average growth rate of total factor productivity （TFP） was 12.40% , which was due to technological progress （TECH） and technical efficiency change （EFF） ; （2） Import trade had a significantly positive effect on allocation of factor of production resources with every 1 percent increase in wine import correspon- ded to a 0.35% and 0.143% rise in material capital and human capital respectively. Export trade significantly weakened the al- location of factor resources, which meant the international competitiveness of China＇ s wine industry was still low; （ 3 ） Under the open economy, there was an obvious lock - in effect in technology efficiency, and the lock - in effect of total factor productivity was weak. The low - level human capital was the main transmitting mechanics of technology lock - in effect. Quality upgrading of human capital would help China＇ s wine industry get rid of the negative aspect of lock - in effect.