雾霾污染、能源消费与经济增长:政策回顾与实证研究

Haze Pollution, Energy Consumption Structure and Economic Growth:Policy Review and Empirical Research

文章从新中国建国至今的政策回顾出发,采用1998-2015年省际面板数据,分析了全国与区域层面雾霾污染、能源消费结构与经济增长三者之间的关系。研究发现,雾霾污染、能源消费与经济增长之间相互影响。其中,雾霾污染与能源消费在全国层面呈现显著单向影响关系,东部、中部和西部区域层面呈现双向影响关系。能源消费与经济增长在各组别面板均为双向影响关系,经济增长单向促进了雾霾污染。我们还发现除中部外,全国、东部和西部层面雾霾与经济增长之间均存在显著倒U型EKC曲线,并且当前都未跨越拐点。煤炭和石油消费是雾霾污染和经济增长的重要驱动因素,在所有分组中没有任何实证表明天然气和清洁能源消费对经济增长有显著促进作用。

Based on reviewing the policy since the founding of the People＇s Republic of China, this study analyzes the relationships between the haze pollution, energy consumption and economic growth at the national and regional levels by adoption the provincial panel data from 1998 to 2015. The result indicates that there is a significant relationship between haze pollution, energy consumption and economic growth. Specifically, haze pollution has a significant one-way impact on energy consumption in the national level. In addition, there exists two- way impact between haze pollution and energy consumption in the eastern, middle and western areas. Moreover, there is two-way relationship between energy consumption and economic growth among different group panels, and economic growth promotes the haze pollution unidirectionally. Result also shows that there is significantly inverted U-shaped Environmental Kuznets Curve between the haze pollution and economic growth, except for the middle regions. What＇s more, none of them currently has crossed the threshold value. The consumption of coal and oil is the main driving factor of haze pollution and economic growth. Yet, there is no empirical evidence that natural gas and clean energy consumption have any positively impact on economic growth.