养老金制度对居民家庭消费的影响——来自于CHFS调查数据的新证据

The Influence of Pension System on Household Consumption——New Evidence from CHFS Survey Data

建立完善的社会保障体系关乎人民的福祉,而随着中国步入老龄化社会,养老金制度显然成为社保体系的关键一环。本文基于微观视角,采用2011年中国家庭金融调查数据(CHFS),利用基于反事实框架的PSM模型,分析了养老金制度对居民家庭消费的影响。分析结果表明:养老金制度对居民家庭消费平均处理效应(ATE)正向显著,城镇样本与农村样本估计结果也都是ATE正向显著,并且结果稳健。不同特征的家庭ATE呈现出异质性,不含退休成员家庭的ATE高于全样本数据;户主年龄小于45岁的家庭ATE最大;低收入家庭的ATE最大,而高收入家庭的ATE不显著;东部地区家庭的ATE要高于中西部地区。

To establish a perfect social security system is good for the well-being of the people. As China has entered an aging society, the pension system is clearly a key part of the social security system. This paper is based on a microcosmic perspective; making use of Chinese family financial survey data （2011） and the PSM model based on the anti-fact framework, analyzes policy effect of pension system on household consumption. Estimated results show： The average treatment effect （ATE） of pension on household consumption is positive and significant. The ATE results of urban and rural samples are also positive and significant, and the results are robust; The ATE of different characteristic families show heterogeneity, the ATE of family without old age and the family with age of the head of the household less than 45 is maximal; the ATE of family with middle and low income is maximal, the ATE of family with high income is not significant; the ATE of families in the eastern region is higher than that of the Midwest families.